UFOs Not, Because E.T. Is Not: Part Two
For UFOs to be alien spaceships, one needs an extraterrestrial intelligent species to develop appropriate technology, and here's where I see a bit of a bottleneck. The evolution of technology isn't inevitable and has a lot of just-so factors attached.
Firstly, your home planet has got to come equipped with the right sorts of materials like oxygen and metallic ores and other objects (rocks, wood, etc.) than can be turned into useful tools, and of course most important a suitable supply of energy sources. That you'll have at your disposal all the required material and energy resources is not a given.
Water worlds are out of the running since it's difficult to discover and utilise fire in that sort of environment.
You can't have all your required locomotive appendages (legs) in contact with the ground - some limbs have to be free to manipulate objects in your environment. Birds have wings that are off the ground, but since wings aren't good at making tools, that seems to rule out wings, and all birds of a feather, pretty much as well as tool makers.
So, I've already ruled out dolphins and whales and the cephalopods (like the octopus) being water based creatures; the birds with their useless wings as far as building things is concerned; and all the four-footed walking mammals (or reptiles or amphibians).
It might be conceivable that you can build up a technology using your mouth parts and/or using a tail (if you have one) to manipulate and build things, but we don't have obvious terrestrial case studies, although you might argue that bees, wasps, termites, ants and birds can build elaborate structures using just their mouths. So that's in the €maybe' basket.
Technology is also a double-edged sword. The use of technology has had obvious survival value for the human species. You wouldn't be hard-pressed to come up with dozens of technological inventions that have enabled us to survive longer and thrive better and be ever more fruitful and multiply. But, our technological genie is also out of the bottle, and unless you're a hermit, you will have noted by now that technology can also reduce our quality of life, and no doubt you wouldn't be equally hard-pressed to cite dozens of examples, from handguns to the automobile - which leads nicely into the last consideration.
Longevity third:
So, how long do technological civilizations last?
Well, the pessimist will look around and cite global warming, probably antibiotic resistant germs giving rise to pandemics, chemical, biological and radiological warfare and/or terrorism, the extinction of biological species, rampant industrial pollution, and in general an overall quality of life heading rapidly down the gurgler, right down to the point that the human race will probably go extinct by our own hand. But if you're an optimist, then the sky's the limit.
It's not all that obvious that technology actually adds all that much value towards ultimate long-term survival. Lots of technological advancements have, like controlling energy sources such as fire, developing a sustainable food supply via agriculture, the rise of modern medicine and food preservation technologies. But then lots of modern technological wonders, the automobile, CDs, sofas, microwave ovens, and thousands of other consumer products don't really contribute much to our overall survival - certainly cars don't when considering the road toll! That brings up the fact that things technological can sometimes work in the opposite direction. Toxic this, pollutant that, nuclear the next thing; then throw in a bit of global warming; the rise of urban city living with overcrowding and in general overpopulation; chemical, biological and radiological warfare/terrorism; instruments of warfare in general, like guns; the overuse of antibiotics hence the rise of antibiotic resistant germs; exposure to electromagnetic fields - well, the list of horrors or potential horrors keeps on keeping on and on.
It makes for an interesting question: would mankind ultimately survive longer had technology never entered the equation, or not? It's an unanswerable question in that 1) we can't run the contrary as a controlled experiment, and 2) that the genie is well and truly out of the bottle and there's probably no turning back now.
Assuming humanity as a collective whole doesn't end up going the way of the Dodo within the next several generations, even centuries - whether it actually morally deserves to go extinct is another question - then what?.
It's hard to imaging what human civilization, what humans themselves will be like 1000 years from now. If you could come back 1000 years hence, would you indeed find a human civilization, indeed find recognizable €humans' at all? Once you have evolved to the stage of being a multicellular critter with intelligence and advanced technology, then physics, chemistry and plain everyday evolutionary biology are no longer in control of your evolution. You are now in control! You are in control not only over the future evolution of other species (artificial selection instead of natural selection) but of your own evolution. The age of the designer baby is already here, albeit still in its infancy (pun intended). What will another few decades bring to this now embryonic field; obviously one with an ever ongoing and continuing maturity?
Humans will probably go kaput within 1000 years, not because of any global nuclear war, or pandemic, or asteroid strike, but because humans have by their own free will evolved themselves into something else, and the process has already started. In fact, it's possible that in 1000 years time there could be two humanoid species on Earth. One will be an amalgamation of flesh-and-blood plus €iron-and-silicon'; the other pure €iron-and-silicon' (artificial intelligence, perhaps in the form of robots).
The first is not too difficult a swallow. Just replace or augment flesh-and-blood bits with €iron-and-silicon' bits (or wood bits, or ceramic bits, or plastic bits, etc.). Look at most pirate films and you'll see those beloved peg-legs and hook-hands. Do you wear glasses or contact lenses? What about a hearing aid? Perhaps you have an artificial joint(s) or a heart pacemaker. You surely have a dental filling (or two), maybe even dentures. Then there's artificial skin and all manner of other internal or external types of technology that have replaced your failed flesh-and-blood - like kidney dialysis. There's now serious talk about the development of a bionic eye within a few years (to go alongside the bionic ear). What further artificial bio-bits will be available in another 20 years, another 50 years, or another 200 years? The era of €RoboCop€ or a real life €Six-Million Dollar Man€ (and €Woman€) is getting close to fruition.
Within 500 years or so, maybe less, I can envision that someone will be able to download the contents of their brain (their mind) into an €iron-and-silicon' equivalent. Why? Well, does the word €immortality' (or as close to immortality as makes no odds) suggest a possible reason? You don't think anything of endlessly replacing worn automobile parts for new parts to extend the useful lifetime of your car. Why not endlessly replace your worn parts? Your mind, that €inner you' housed within your brain won't last forever. Replace it - transfer it to a more durable technology. Do it again, and again and again as is necessary. In fact, one might create a mega-mind or super-mind by merging into an €iron-and-silicon' body containing a lot of minds (in much the same way as computer hardware can have a lot of operating software programs. By merging the minds of say a cosmologist, general relativist, quantum physicist and mathematician, one might speed up the development of the Holy Grail of physics, the Theory of Everything (TOE) - which is as currently conceived, a theory of quantum gravity.
Once your mind is contained
Firstly, your home planet has got to come equipped with the right sorts of materials like oxygen and metallic ores and other objects (rocks, wood, etc.) than can be turned into useful tools, and of course most important a suitable supply of energy sources. That you'll have at your disposal all the required material and energy resources is not a given.
Water worlds are out of the running since it's difficult to discover and utilise fire in that sort of environment.
You can't have all your required locomotive appendages (legs) in contact with the ground - some limbs have to be free to manipulate objects in your environment. Birds have wings that are off the ground, but since wings aren't good at making tools, that seems to rule out wings, and all birds of a feather, pretty much as well as tool makers.
So, I've already ruled out dolphins and whales and the cephalopods (like the octopus) being water based creatures; the birds with their useless wings as far as building things is concerned; and all the four-footed walking mammals (or reptiles or amphibians).
It might be conceivable that you can build up a technology using your mouth parts and/or using a tail (if you have one) to manipulate and build things, but we don't have obvious terrestrial case studies, although you might argue that bees, wasps, termites, ants and birds can build elaborate structures using just their mouths. So that's in the €maybe' basket.
Technology is also a double-edged sword. The use of technology has had obvious survival value for the human species. You wouldn't be hard-pressed to come up with dozens of technological inventions that have enabled us to survive longer and thrive better and be ever more fruitful and multiply. But, our technological genie is also out of the bottle, and unless you're a hermit, you will have noted by now that technology can also reduce our quality of life, and no doubt you wouldn't be equally hard-pressed to cite dozens of examples, from handguns to the automobile - which leads nicely into the last consideration.
Longevity third:
So, how long do technological civilizations last?
Well, the pessimist will look around and cite global warming, probably antibiotic resistant germs giving rise to pandemics, chemical, biological and radiological warfare and/or terrorism, the extinction of biological species, rampant industrial pollution, and in general an overall quality of life heading rapidly down the gurgler, right down to the point that the human race will probably go extinct by our own hand. But if you're an optimist, then the sky's the limit.
It's not all that obvious that technology actually adds all that much value towards ultimate long-term survival. Lots of technological advancements have, like controlling energy sources such as fire, developing a sustainable food supply via agriculture, the rise of modern medicine and food preservation technologies. But then lots of modern technological wonders, the automobile, CDs, sofas, microwave ovens, and thousands of other consumer products don't really contribute much to our overall survival - certainly cars don't when considering the road toll! That brings up the fact that things technological can sometimes work in the opposite direction. Toxic this, pollutant that, nuclear the next thing; then throw in a bit of global warming; the rise of urban city living with overcrowding and in general overpopulation; chemical, biological and radiological warfare/terrorism; instruments of warfare in general, like guns; the overuse of antibiotics hence the rise of antibiotic resistant germs; exposure to electromagnetic fields - well, the list of horrors or potential horrors keeps on keeping on and on.
It makes for an interesting question: would mankind ultimately survive longer had technology never entered the equation, or not? It's an unanswerable question in that 1) we can't run the contrary as a controlled experiment, and 2) that the genie is well and truly out of the bottle and there's probably no turning back now.
Assuming humanity as a collective whole doesn't end up going the way of the Dodo within the next several generations, even centuries - whether it actually morally deserves to go extinct is another question - then what?.
It's hard to imaging what human civilization, what humans themselves will be like 1000 years from now. If you could come back 1000 years hence, would you indeed find a human civilization, indeed find recognizable €humans' at all? Once you have evolved to the stage of being a multicellular critter with intelligence and advanced technology, then physics, chemistry and plain everyday evolutionary biology are no longer in control of your evolution. You are now in control! You are in control not only over the future evolution of other species (artificial selection instead of natural selection) but of your own evolution. The age of the designer baby is already here, albeit still in its infancy (pun intended). What will another few decades bring to this now embryonic field; obviously one with an ever ongoing and continuing maturity?
Humans will probably go kaput within 1000 years, not because of any global nuclear war, or pandemic, or asteroid strike, but because humans have by their own free will evolved themselves into something else, and the process has already started. In fact, it's possible that in 1000 years time there could be two humanoid species on Earth. One will be an amalgamation of flesh-and-blood plus €iron-and-silicon'; the other pure €iron-and-silicon' (artificial intelligence, perhaps in the form of robots).
The first is not too difficult a swallow. Just replace or augment flesh-and-blood bits with €iron-and-silicon' bits (or wood bits, or ceramic bits, or plastic bits, etc.). Look at most pirate films and you'll see those beloved peg-legs and hook-hands. Do you wear glasses or contact lenses? What about a hearing aid? Perhaps you have an artificial joint(s) or a heart pacemaker. You surely have a dental filling (or two), maybe even dentures. Then there's artificial skin and all manner of other internal or external types of technology that have replaced your failed flesh-and-blood - like kidney dialysis. There's now serious talk about the development of a bionic eye within a few years (to go alongside the bionic ear). What further artificial bio-bits will be available in another 20 years, another 50 years, or another 200 years? The era of €RoboCop€ or a real life €Six-Million Dollar Man€ (and €Woman€) is getting close to fruition.
Within 500 years or so, maybe less, I can envision that someone will be able to download the contents of their brain (their mind) into an €iron-and-silicon' equivalent. Why? Well, does the word €immortality' (or as close to immortality as makes no odds) suggest a possible reason? You don't think anything of endlessly replacing worn automobile parts for new parts to extend the useful lifetime of your car. Why not endlessly replace your worn parts? Your mind, that €inner you' housed within your brain won't last forever. Replace it - transfer it to a more durable technology. Do it again, and again and again as is necessary. In fact, one might create a mega-mind or super-mind by merging into an €iron-and-silicon' body containing a lot of minds (in much the same way as computer hardware can have a lot of operating software programs. By merging the minds of say a cosmologist, general relativist, quantum physicist and mathematician, one might speed up the development of the Holy Grail of physics, the Theory of Everything (TOE) - which is as currently conceived, a theory of quantum gravity.
Once your mind is contained
Source...